Commentary: COVID-19 just one of a few ‘white swans’ that could trigger next global economic crisis

NEW YORK: In my 2010 book, Crisis Economics, I defined financial crises not as the “black swan” events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb described in his eponymous bestseller, but as “white swans”. According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado, from a fat-tailed statistical distribution. Advertisement Advertisement But I argued that financial crises, at least, are more like hurricanes: They are the predictable result of built-up economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes. There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping…

China increases surveillance in Pacific Ocean as Australia agree major upgrade to US base | World | News

The Australian Border Force (AFB) has confirmed it has been tracking a Chinese vessel for the past two months as it conducted deepwater research from eastern China to Western Australia. The ship identified as Xiang Yang Hong 01 has travelled more than 200 miles from the Java Sea to the Australian territory of Christmas Island. The Java Sea is an extension of the Indian Ocean and is one of the busiest shipping routes in Asia. The Australian territory of Christmas Island is located 1,616 miles north west of Perth and…

Heaven Knows Where We’re Going – Anderson Valley Advertiser

Sure, my wife Erin and I had some challenges on our recent month-long cruise through Asia on the Holland America ship Westerdam. We were caught at sea in the eye of a storm — COVID-19, coronavirus, which can produce a deadly form of pneumonia. Despite assurances from Holland America that all passengers were healthy — 1,455 guests and 747 crew— many countries on the itinerary refused to let us land, including the Philippines and Japan. Taiwan allowed us to dock in Kaohsiung for one night but then sent us packing.…

The ADMM-Plus And Maritime Security In South China Sea: Constraints In Establishing A Maritime Security Regime – Analysis

Introduction The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) through the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) have taken steps to establish a maritime security regime that may govern interactions and avoid contingencies and operational miscalculations in the South China Sea (SCS). Interestingly, the ADMM initiatives have yet to be adopted by ASEAN’s more encompassing defense cooperation platform—the ADMM-Plus. In this regard, this article will discuss the structural, institutional, and geostrategic factors that might have constrained the ADMM-Plus in adopting such initiatives.   ADMM-Plus and Establishing a Maritime Security Regime As part…

Chinese Search-and-Rescue Ship Moves to Fiery Cross Reef

A Chinese rescue ship has started operating in and around Fiery Cross Reef, a land feature disputed between China, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, Radio Free Asia has learned. The Nan Hai Jiu 115, according to the Office of Naval Intelligence’s navy recognition guide, is operated by China’s Ministry of Transportation, and is responsible for rescue and salvage services at sea. The rescue ship departed the Chinese city of Sanya, Hainan province, on Jan. 10 and entered Fiery Cross Reef on Feb. 18. It has…

Chinese Search-and-Rescue Vessel Moves to Fiery Cross Reef

A Chinese rescue ship has started operating in and around Fiery Cross Reef, a land feature disputed between China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam in the South China Sea, Radio Free Asia has learned. The Nan Hai Jiu 115, according to the Office of Naval Intelligence’s navy recognition guide, is operated by China’s Ministry of Transportation, and is responsible for rescue and salvage services at sea. The rescue ship departed the Chinese city of Sanya, Hainan province, on Jan. 10 and entered Fiery Cross Reef on Feb. 18. It has…

One Small Step Toward a Rules-Based International Order in Outer Space

(Editor’s Note: The absence of a comprehensive analysis of the legal framework for military operations in outer space represents a troubling deficiency in the understanding of the applicable law. Such uncertainty increases the chance of a strategic error in the conduct of military operations in space. This three-part Just Security forum, beginning with the first installment below, introduces and analyzes key emerging legal issues raised by space-based military operations, which are the focus of the ongoing Woomera Manual Project, an international research project that is spearheaded by The University of…

Ignorance of China is Not Bliss

By Capt. Brent Ramsey (ret.) China Rising China is modernizing every element of its military. It has announced plans to field a world-class military by 2035 and a dominant military by mid-century.1 Consistent with its goal of regional hegemony, China is building Navy, Coast Guard, and merchant ships faster than any other nation. Its Navy now directly commands China’s Coast Guard, adding hundreds of ships to its fleet. China’s fleet of warships now outnumbers U.S. warships in the Indo-Pacific by about 10 to 1. With this new capability, China constantly…